Saturday, 20 April 2013

Daily Index Cycle update

After a very turbulent week, the indexes closed the week with a rally. Most indexes closed around 1% higher, although the Dow was effectively flat, with IBM holding it back. Near term trend looks like another day or two of upside, before some severe declines within 5-7 days.






Well, it was certainly a good week for the bears, and especially those who are seeking a multi-month cyclical top.

It is now looking like we have had a very clean 5 little waves to the downside - forming a 1, and now we're seeing a 2-3 day bounce.

So long as the bears can contain the bounce below the previous high of 1597, then the market looks set for what could be a rather exciting wave'3 down.

My best guess is that we'll simply form a RS in the low sp'1570s next week, but as ever, it will be important to keep an open mind, and watch those hourly charts - including the VIX.

I am patiently on the sidelines, and seeking a major re-short next Tuesday afternoon.

That's all for today, have a good weekend :)
*next main posting, late Saturday, on the US weekly index charts.