sp'daily5a - H/S formation idea
sp'daily3 - fib levels
sp'weekly
sp'weekly2, rainbow
Summary
Today was particularly rough in the permabear bunker, since I've run out of chocolate again. Clearly, I will need to visit the retail sector this Tuesday. Bullish XRT ?
Seriously though, today was difficult, and were it not for the fact that I am more focused on the bigger weekly and monthly cycle charts, I'd really be on the edge of waving the white flag of surrender.
Daily charts are obviously looking a bit of a choppy mess. The sp'500 chart remains one of the stronger indexes, and is still holding within the November upward channel. Bears really need to put in some daily closes in the low 1530s to decisively break it.
Weekly charts still warning of trouble
The MACD (blue/green bar histogram) cycle on the weekly charts is pretty clear. The US markets are losing the bullish price momentum, and having put in a secondary (and crucially lower) wave/tower, we're all set for much lower price levels.
My near and mid-term outlooks are thus unchanged, primary target is the 1480/70s...with a secondary one of 1430/00 in mid-May. The latter of which is only viable if we break <1500 this month.
Well, lets see how Tuesday opens, and more importantly...where it closes.
A close to a new high >1573...and the bearish outlook will have to be put back on hold.
In many ways, the bears really can't get confident now until we take out the Friday low of 1539..and the March'19 low of 1538. The 50 day MA is lurking @ 1532..that remains a very valid intra-day target later this week.
A mini H/S...within a H/S
I was churning on the hourly charts, which a few out there (Wavaholic, Daneric, and I'm sure a few others I've not noticed) are looking at a possible mini H/S.
Now, as I posted for chart daily5a - at the weekend, I'm considering a bigger H/S formation, one that breaks lower into May...
Here is the combination of the two, and perhaps is something that will be very useful in the weeks ahead.
sp'daily5
Of course, if we break over sp'1573, this will have to get trashed
I think the key point is that a break of sp'1538 should open up the 1505s, and perhaps more naturally the key low from late Feb of 1485 - which also lines up with the 38% Fib' level.
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That's all for today.....
Goodnight from a resolutely bearish... London