sp'daily7 - fib levels
sp'monthly5 - fib levels
Summary
I realise you could draw the Fibonacci charts in so many different ways, but I kinda like what the above two charts are both suggesting...sp'1550s, sometime later this month.
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Commodities - two deflationary warnings
Despite the Fed printing 1trn a year, we're just not seeing a ramp in the two key commodities of Copper and Oil.
Copper, weekly, 2yr
WTIC, monthly2, rainbow
With Copper having broken (briefly) below 3.50 for the second consecutive week, and WTIC Oil breaking <$90, the doomer bears do have something to tout against the inflationists.
Looking ahead
We have ISM data in the morning, if that comes in 'reasonable' it'll give the market the excuse to break into the mid 1530s, at which point you'll see an awful lot of bears capitulate once again.
I expect the market to like the jobs data on Friday, and my best guess remains this final wave will get us to around 1550/60. I suppose we could go a little higher, we'll just have to deal with that nearer the time.
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A little bonus...to end the day...
Charles Nenner on Bloomberg...targeting Dow 5000, with a new bear cycle starting this year.
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Finally, Zerohedge posted an interesting chart to remind us of the current large discrepency between the CRB index and the SP'. Here is my version, and I'll refer to this in the months ahead.
CRB/SP, 10yr
Roughly, the CRB would indicate we 'should' be around sp'1000/900s. The Ben Bernanke has a great deal to answer for indeed.
Goodnight from London