sp'daily - Feb/March 2009
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sp'monthly3d - waiting for the red candle
Summary
The market low of 666 remains a kooky irony, and its a wonder that we have made it this high in just four years.
The fact we closed today at a new post 2009 high of sp'1539, and will probably close tomorrow even higher, is but another sprinkling of salt in the wounds of those bears still trading this market.
Bears...still waiting
Monthly chart 3d illustrates pretty clearly how the primary trend remains starkly bullish. 2012 was bizarrely strong, and the two pull backs we did see didn't even merit a red candle on the Elder Impulse style of candle.
As many leading chartists recognise, even if the market does put in a key cyclical top this year, its going to take some considerable time - probably 6-9 months, to really build serious downside momentum.
The real problem for the bears though, remains the Fed. Until the Fed end the QE - especially the POMO program (45bn a month), its going to be extremely difficult for the bears to string together any kind of significant decline.
I have the 'small' hope that the Fed will end the POMO in Q3. If that is the case, the bears will have their first opportunity of a multi-month down wave since summer 2011. Yet if the Fed just keep on printing..and if nothing 'spooks' the market...then sp'1600s will be hit..and then..1700s...and...so forth.
Looking ahead
Factory orders and ADP jobs data are due Wednesday, although the Friday Govt' jobs data will be much more important. If the latter at least comes in 'reasonable', >170k, then the market will surely close the week in the sp'1550s.
As for the anniversary, maybe the doomer bears should all go buy a cake and some candles.
I've not looked lately, but I've yet to see a shop that stocks 'bearish engulfing' candles.
Goodnight from London