Daily Index Cycle update

The US market closed broadly lower, with declines of around 0.9%. The transports particularly suffered, -1.6%, making the fifth consecutive daily decline - the longest down cycle since late Dec. Primary trend is looking weak, and key rising support for most indexes is not far away.


IWM

SP'daily5

Trans

Summary

So, almost 1% lower for most indexes, not too significant, but it should be something to concern the bulls.

Is the top of this multi-month cycle already in? My hourly chart (see earlier post) is still looking for a few more days higher. I still think there is very real risk of a final little blow off rally into the sp'1570s.

Of course, the Cyprus issue is what is largely causing the current weakness, but if that can 'somehow' be resolved (at least temporarily), then this market will probably break new highs.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is now negative cycle on most indexes. The bears are trying to wrestle back control of the market, but..we are still within what remains a very strong upward channel.

a little more later