Friday, 1 February 2013

Five percent so far

January comes to a close, with the sp'500 ending significantly higher by 5%. Even if there is a minor retracement in the early part of February to the sp'1460/50 zone, it would still seem very likely we'll be pushing into the mid sp'1500s in late Feb/March.

sp'monthly2, Keltner

sp'60min4 - retracement


A somewhat tiresome end to the month, is it not the weekend also yet?

So, 5% higher for the sp'500. Do we x12 to project 60% for the year?

My best guess is a minor retracement, but then pushing to new highs in late Feb/March. I'm going to boldly suggest we max out again in April - as has been the case in the last few years, and it will only be from May onward, that the bears have their first chance of a significant retracement.

If we max out around sp'1550, perhaps 1400 will be the summer 2013 low? Yet, GDP is weak, and I'd have to believe Q1 and Q2 will be weaker than Q4. So, with a US recession, perhaps we're looking at somewhere around 1350/1250?

Anyway, that is probably looking too far out, and besides..lets first see if that retracement occurs.

Looking ahead

We have another batch of econ-data tomorrow, not least the big monthly jobs number. Market is seeking 185k job gains, with a slight drop in the rate to 7.7% That's not exactly expecting too much. I'd have to guess a number >200k would give Mr Market the excuse to ramp to new index highs...with <120k being in the bears favour.

Tomorrow could be a bit of a mind-frak. Often is the case, the market will spike a new brief intra-day high, before a sharp reversal.

On any basis, the bears need a Friday close <1490, with VIX in the 15s. The bulls started January with a hyper-ramp, lets see if the bears can start February with the indexes -1% by the Friday close.

Goodnight from London