USD, weekly
SP' weekly
Summary
Just a brief update on the USD and the weekly index cycle.
First, its important to note the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle which is now positive for the first time since last July. The USD 81s are indeed important, but dollar bulls should be seeking 81.60..and higher - breaking back above the November high.
If we see 82s at any point, the door opens to a considerable multi-month ramp, at least to the 83/84 level.
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As things are, the weekly MACD cycle on the US indexes is looking kinda toppy, but there is major support at the old resistance/high of 1474.
Best near term bear case remains, a minor retracement down to the sp'1470/60s, with a minor spike in the VIX to 16/18.
Finally, an interesting post on Gary Shilling @ arabianmoney.net.
Were the fed 'pomo' program to end this summer/autumn, I would again be open to a massive down cycle. Yet...the notion that the fed are ever going to end what was acknowledged by many as 'QE-without end' I find almost impossible to believe.
Goodnight from London