Wednesday 2 January 2013

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning, and welcome to the first trading day of 2013. Futures are soaring after the can got kicked yet again..if only for 2 months or so. The sp is +24pts...we're set to open around 1450, and this is indeed a clear break above the important 1448 level.


sp'60min



sp'daily5



Summary

So..we're going to see a hyper-gap at the open, above the peak of the previous up wave.

Special note...

*This mornings action will mean I need to throw out the provisional count on my daily/hourly charts..I'll update those later today.
---

It is difficult to estimate where we'll close the day.

Suffice to say, I remain on the bearish sidelines, since my Monday morning exit. I am somewhat 'relieved' to have escaped this 2 day bear massacre. I do not intend to attempt a re-short this morning..or perhaps for 'some days'.

Those still leaning to the bearish side probably need to give this market a few days to exhaust itself..and then level out..wherever that might be.

Good wishes for Wednesday trading..and indeed..the whole of this year.
 --

UPDATE 9am..

A few other points of note..
Metals and Oil both higher....although both are still way below their highs, relative to equities.

The Dollar is starting the year weak, and is not too far from the 78s. For the doomer bears, this is a real problem.

TVIX/UVXY, both -15/20% in early trading..suggesting the VIX will open -10% at least...

so..that'd give us a VIX in the mid 16s.    Incredible.


UPDATE 9.10am...

Okay..this is a major issue now...

IWM is trading >86 in pre-market..at a new ALL TIME high.

Both the Rus'2000 and the Transports remain key pointers, and if the tranny closes today >5400, then that'll be two indexes suggesting the rest of the market is similarly going to break new post-Sept' highs..aka sp>1474, dow'13600.
 --

On any basis..re-shorting the open would seem a crazy move...it'd be nothing less than stepping in front of a freight train*, loaded with gold and silver bullion.

*driven by the Bernanke.