VIX continues to battle higher, a peak of 18/19 later this week seems 'best bear case'.
Sp'daily5b, scenarios
Summary
A new chart to outline the broad scenarios. A' remains very possible, sp'1450/75 this autumn remains well well within range if there sellside volume remains non-existant.
Right now, best guess is a bounce off 1380, but putting in a slightly lower high <1426...before a wave lower. Yet this is entirely dependent upon so many issues, not least the market getting majorly spooked pre-election by 'something'.
Anyone looking to take a new short block, should arguably wait until middle of next week, after the post-hole hysteria has quietened down a bit.
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Whatever the Bernanke says this Friday at the hole, I'd expect the market to rally off it. It is important to note that Draghi is at the hole on Saturday, so bears holding long across this coming weekend are at high risk of a Monday gap higher.
More later