I was looking for a hollow red reversal candle earlier today. We did close with such a candle. Closing outside the lower bollinger band is often a low (for a few days at least, even if the long term trend remains down).
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VIX weekly - 6 year broad overview
It is truly bizarre to see that the market now acts as though its 2007 again. Although we are in the Bernanke paper printing bubble of course, but still, its remarkable to see. Who had dared thought last October we'd see VIX in the low teens? Even yours truly had thought VIX 20..maybe 18 - at the very low point, and that had seemed a really bold outlook.
If Sp'1450/1550, then VIX single digits?
Can the VIX collapse below 10 ? The VIX has never stayed (maybe intra-day?) below 10 in over 20 years. Lets be clear, this market is rallying on no real volume of buyers, it remains low vol' MELT-UP. It will of course end at some point, but its also very possible we'll just keep on trundling much higher for many months, baring some sort of 'event' .
Today's red hollow candle on the VIX was a minor victory, but its arguably irrelevant. There are literally hundreds of buy signals out there right now, and the only 'sell/short' signal is today's VIX reversal candle. Right now, the bears - those few who are still around, have no right to claim today's outside-candle as a victory.
When considering the daily, weekly, monthly cycles on the main indexes, it does look like we'll be seeing an even lower VIX. We'll know soon enough.