Saturday, 22 December 2012

Mr Dollar - still below the key 80.00 threshold

The US dollar closed the week quite strongly, but across the week, only closed fractionally higher. So far this month, the dollar is 0.7% lower, and the monthly rainbow chart is still warning of a possible major bearish break lower into 2013.

USD, daily

USD, weekly

USD, monthly, rainbow


The USD remains beneath the important 80 threshold. With just 4 trading days left of the year, its going to be a little difficult to get a close in the 80s.

Counting the Dollar

I've included a count on both the daily and weekly charts. At the moment though, I don't have much confidence in either, since we're hovering right on the border of a major trend break - as seen most clearly on the monthly charts.

However, if the dollar can claw back into the 80s by year end, there will again be another chance at seeing a further up wave to around the 84/85 level in spring 2013.

A stronger US dollar would be particularly 'useful' for those doomer bears seeking a major index wave lower in early 2013. A move into the USD 82s should be enough to help pressure the equity markets into the low sp'1200s.

Have a good weekend...and...Goodnight from London

*next posting will be late Saturday, probably on the weekly index charts.