Daily Index Cycle update

A very confusing and roller coaster trading day, although the trading range was barely 1%, so we're not into 'crazy wild swings' quite yet. Most of the main indexes closed moderately higher, despite a closing hour slump. With the VIX apparently flooring in the mid 16s, we could see much stronger downside moves, first target remains - sp'1385.


Nasdaq Comp

Dow

Sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

At 11am this morning I asked 'are we having fun yet?' Mere minutes later, the market turned, and ramped 150 dow points in just over an hour. Maybe I should be more careful with my words, do I tempt fate too much ?

So, the closing hour action was at least bearish into Thursday, and closing <1410 was quite a relief. 

Thursday, it will obviously be important to take out today's low of sp'1398, and break into the 1380s. If that is achieved, then everything remains 'broadly' on schedule.
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I remain short, and seeking first target of sp'1385. It will be VERY difficult for the indexes to break below the 200 day MA though, and today's late morning ramp again showed that the market can still easily smack the bears down.

A little more later