Daily Index Cycle update

The opening moderate index gains held into the early afternoon, then a little weakness..but the closing hour saw a major ramp. The main indexes closed higher by around 1.3%, with the VIX confirming the gains, via a near 4% daily decline. The bulls are close to breaking up..and out.


IWM

Nasdaq Comp

Sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

Without question, the closing hour was salt in the wounds for the bears. The afternoon weakness appeared on schedule, only to get completely negated. I'm not sure what the reason was, but whatever it was, the indexes are now just 0.4% away from breaking the FOMC highs.

If we get a daily close tomorrow (or whenever this week) >sp'1438, anything in the 1440s will arguably mean the bigger picture bearish outlook needs to be at least put on hold..or worse..simply thrown in the trash.

I have to say, I am kinda surprised at today's closing levels, not least when the transports was putting in a fifth spiky daily candle earlier today, only to close close to the recent 4 candle peak.

We closed today..pretty much sitting on the edge of a bullish breakout. Arguably, any of the remaining 'serious money' on the bear side will have 'last line in the sand' short-stops around sp'1338/40.

A little more later