WTIC Oil, daily,
WTIC Oil, weekly
WTIC Oil, monthly2, rainbow
Summary
Oil has been creeping up slowly in the past two weeks, from $84 to the current $87.64. I'd guess 89/90 is viable by next Wed/Thursday. From there, I'd most certainly look for a rollover, and then the only issue is whether $84 is taken out.
If 84 fails to hold, then a re-test of the June low of $77 will seemingly be likely, and if that fails...then my primary target of $60 will back on the horizon, to be hit sometime in late spring 2013.
In terms of global price deflation, there is no question that demand is weaker than most have expected, and despite the recent middle eastern flare up, it has really amounted to very little, and hence WTIC Oil hasn't seen much of a spike higher. Certainly, the big $100 is almost 15% higher from where we are.
So, keep a close eye on Oil, it remains the foundation for the world economy, and if the price breaks back into the 70s, it would be very suggestive of continued global economic weakness.
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Bonus chart...
Sp'daily5c - Puetz crash window
The Puetz crash window opened today, and (arguably) expires around Monday December 3rd. I read around a great deal, and I am most certainly not the only one keeping this unquestionably kooky issue in mind.
Lets be clear though, I am NOT currently trading this window. Right now, I don't have any positions, long or short! As I've said many times, I'm sitting out this holiday week, and I'll let the algo-bots trade amongst themselves.
However, I am somewhat 'curious' about Monday Dec'3rd, not least if we do see what I believe to be a wave'2 bounce that should be complete late next week.
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As for Friday, I'm guessing on balance, we'll just see more melt higher, although its very possible we'll also gap open, as much as 1% higher, so don't be surprised if we're lurking around sp'1405/10 by 1pm tomorrow - which is when we will see an early closing time.
Goodnight from a stormy London