sp'weekly2
sp'monthly3b
Summary
The bounce from sp'1345 has been very pleasing to see, and instills a little more confidence in my general outlook for next year.
However, a single price hit does not count for much, and the bears - as a group, need to see four key aspects in the weeks and months ahead...
1. The first lower high. Anything <1474 will be enough, although it will take some some weeks/months to be sure that the 'lower high' was indeed the case.
2. Take out the June sp'1266 low. That will be a major event if/when it happens
3. Break into low 1200s..see a floor develop, and then a multi-month bounce higher - which I anticipate will take us into early summer 2013.
4. Put in a lower high on the monthly charts. Again, that will need to be <1474. Personally, I'd like to see a lower high in June/August 2013, no higher than around 1350/75.
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Only if those four things occur, would the bears have a chance at seeing some sort of collapse wave, in the style of autumn 2008. I will post much more on this outlook in the months ahead.
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Sitting it out
I can't stomach going long (most of the time), so I'm merely going to sit this entire up wave out, even though I'm pretty confident it will play out as projected.
At least I am not still hitting the short button, as I have sadly tended to do in the past.
As ever...the patient bear...is the good bear.
Goodnight from London