Thursday, 22 November 2012

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes saw the algo-bots take command, and melt the market upward into the thanksgiving holiday break. We are now just a trading day or two away from hitting the low end of the primary target zone of sp'1410/25.

IWM, daily




Lets start with the tranny, which closed very near the big 5000 level. This remains a key level, and I do expect the tranny do make a move to 5100 or so next week. The mid-term target remains 4500 or so, which would equate to the low sp'1200s.

With the sp' closing @ 1391, we're a mere 1.5% away from the low end of my re-short target zone of 1410/25.

My best guess..we will see the indexes max out by next Thursday, and perhaps see the first sign of rollover on Friday Nov'30.

Wave'2 continues into next week

So, lets be clear, I believe this is some sort of wave'2 bounce, with everything from Oct'18 - to last Friday, a wave'1 down. We won't have 100% confirmation of that though, until we take out the recent sp'1343 low. Once that happens, we'll know we are in a swift and fierce wave'3 decline.

The big unknown remains whether the market can be held up - trading sideways into January, before the next major down wave.

A little more later.