Saturday, 17 November 2012

Daily Index Cycle update

The indexes saw further lows in the early morning, and after a minor battle, the bulls achieved a major late morning ramp, and the gains largely held into the Friday close. The VIX slumped 8%, and confirmed the moderate index gains.

IWM, daily




A real tricky trading day to end the week. Personally, I was anticipating such conditions, and was very content to be merely a spectator to the entire day.

Some might assume the daily charts are now flooring, but if you look at the hourly charts, this is very possibly not the case at all. We could easily be in a wave'4, with one final fifth wave lower to develop across next Monday-Wednesday.

So, even though we do have some bullish turn candles, and a flooring spike on the tranny, I don't think the near term floor is in yet, never mind a mid-term floor.

If we somehow break - and close >sp'1380 early next week, I would consider further gains to the sp'1400/25 level. That was my original outlook actually (some 3 weeks ago!), although I have adjusted it, after a great deal of thought.

sp'daily4 - original outlook

So, lets be clear. If we open Monday, and ramp into the 1380s, I would assume my original outlook was correct, and rather than see declines into thanksgiving, we'll instead ramp...all the way to 1400/25 - a back test of the Oct'2011 rising support.

As ever, I think an open mind on such outlooks will be useful. I believe we'll have a great deal of clarity by the manner in which will open Monday morning.

If we get stuck around sp'1365/70, and start to rollover, I'm hitting buttons to re-short the market - and will assume my daily5g chart is the outlook to follow.

A little more later