2pm update - a tricky market

Today has been more tricky than yesterday. We saw early gains to 1401, but then..a very slow, but persistant melt..to 1381 just a little earlier. That qualifies as a test of the 200 MA, and right now, I'm still expecting a bounce - not least since the VIX has remained red through this entire fall!


sp'15min

VIX'60min

Even though VIX held my trend line, I don't trust it, not least whilst the indexes were red.

VIX could easily get smacked lower by 7-10%



Summary

The only issue now, is how high is the next bounce?

As I try to remind myself...the good bear..is the patient bear. I sure won't chase this higher, not with the smaller cycles so oversold, and with a VIX red, whilst indexes are red.
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As I noted earlier, don't be surprised if some stupid rumour across the news wires occurs, and we see a hyper ramp into the close.

Right now, I'd only be tempted to short if we are 1403 or higher. I'm content to sit in cash overnight, not least because we do tend to open higher - as today again showed.

back at 3pm