Monday, 8 October 2012

Volatility up...a bit

A very dull trading day, with the indexes closing moderately lower, and the VIX closing moderately higher. Yet the VIX remains in bizarrely low territory, until we see the VIX over 20, any index declines are not to be taken seriously.



We're still comfortably holding over the mid August VIX lows, but really, at these low levels, VIX movement is very eratic, and almost entirely unreliable.

I certainly won't take any index declines seriously until we see the VIX break* back over 20.

*A weekly VIX close >20, remains my third 'red flag for the Autumn'.

Hitting even 20 seems just so high up, urghh..thats 30% higher! Considering the state of the MACD and the total lack of trading volume, it seems very unlikely we'll be reach 20 in the near term.

More later