Monday, 15 October 2012

Volatility fails to increase

With the main indexes closing higher by around 0.75%, the VIX closed lower by over 5%, to now reside back in the low 15s. The VIX remains remarkably low, and is now seemingly starting a new down trend.




Today's decline in the VIX should be a real concern for the bears. If Sp'1427 was the floor in the indexes for this down cycle, then the VIX could break to new lows as we move into November.

Bears - especially those looking for a break below the key cycle low of sp'1397, are going to need the VIX to break back into the 17s, if not 18/19.

As things are, its not looking like the VIX is capable of breaking higher any time soon. The underlying momentum is again weakening (see MACD), and we could easily a major VIX decline as we get nearer to opex.

Crazy times.