Tuesday 9 October 2012

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures have tapered off from the earlier moderate gains, we're set to open..flat. Exciting huh? There is no significant data due today. Market is likely to be focused on the visit of Merkel to Greece.


sp'daily5


Summary

The key question is whether last Friday was indeed a failed breakout - outside of the bear flag? Yet we closed well within what is a bear flag. The problem for the bears remains that the Dow did post a new high last Friday.

Today, bears need a close under the bear flag-channel of 1450. A close of 1446 or lower would arguably be pretty conclusive, and open another challenge to break the recent 1430 low.

I suppose it is viable we somehow battle our way lower to test the recent 1397 low from Sept'1st, but I'm certainly not very hopeful of that right now. With the VIX still in the low teens, its going to be one mighty difficult task just to briefly hit the important VIX'20 level.

Good wishes for Tuesday