sp'daily5
Summary
So, lets consider whats happened in the past few weeks
Market rallies to spike to sp'1474 on QE announcement
Minor pullback..and then a 7 day ramp, that just fails to break a new high - although the Dow'30 index did.
Friday's action was indeed a very interesting event, and with two red closes, it makes for a very nice spiky top for the previous up cycle.
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Today was day'2 down of this new cycle, and we've clearly broken what was a bear flag. I think there is a good chance we can see another 2-3 days down.
Downside targets?
First, we need to take out that 1430 low. A break of that, should in theory open up the 1420/00 zone. Where we floor will be very tricky to judge. Arguably, bears should look to the VIX for some guidance, and try to exit on an opening gap higher - especially if VIX is 19+
I remain short, and absolutely am seeking to exit ALL short positions no later than the Friday close. Next week is opex, and I'd guess we'll again trundle somewhat higher again. What matters then for the bears, is putting in a lower high - preferably something in the 1445/55 zone.
If that lower high happens, then..'interesting things' are viable.
A little more later.