Monday, 22 October 2012

12pm update - morning weakness

A choppy morning, with some distinct underlying weakness showing through again. The bulls are trying to break back over the (now declining) daily 10MA of 1441, I don't think they can do it.



VIX, daily


Despite the recent hour declines to sp'1427, its still a bit boring so far today.

The weekly index cycles are all going negative MACD cycle..and it bodes for a move to 1400, if not 1375..this week. There is a very small possibility of a decline to 1325/00 within the next 3-6 trading days, with the emphasis on 'small'. That door won't be open unless sp'1397 low is taken out.

VIX remains a touch green, but so far..its all minor noise.

Bears need at least a flat close (a doji in a downtrend is acceptable), with VIX holding flat.

Lets keep in mind that so far..this is only day'2 of the down trend*

*last Thursday did close lower, but we still put in another high, and so I count from the first day with a lower high.

back at 2pm