Wednesday, 3 October 2012

10am update -1420s before 1460s

Good morning. Market opens a touch higher, but its not exactly soaring after the ADP jobs data - which came in 'reasonable' I guess.

*awaiting ISM non-manu' data at 10am.

sp'60min - H/S formation




Considering the larger H/S formation on the hourly chart, and the bear flag on the daily index charts, I'm still guessing we break into the 1420s before we see the 1460s again.

I find it difficult to imagine we can break much below 1420. VIX looks set to max out around 18/19. I can't see the big 20 being hit this cycle.

Bears need a daily close <1440, and to take out the recent low of 1430.

Best bear case today, sp'1435 , -10pts, with a VIX +7% or so.

back at 12pm.