Trans, monthly, 6yr, rainbow
Summary
With 4 trading days left of the week, month, and the third quarter, the tranny is still red
Primary downside target is 4500/4400 by the end of November. That would probably equate to around *sp'1350/25.
*The problem is if the market is in the mid 1300s by late November, that would have broken the post October 2011 low of 1074 trend/ lower channel. Without going into the 'what happens then', if the transports does continue to weaken, it IS a warning that can't be dismissed, even with the Bernanke now buying up MBS and soon - monthly $40bn blocks of unsterilised T-bonds.
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The tranny will remain my primary red flag warning, lets see if we can close the week under 5k with a red candle. The secondary red flag is WTIC Oil, and I remain seeking a weekly close <$90. Stay tuned!
Goodnight from London