Wednesday, 12 September 2012

Sp'1400 remains first key support

With the German court ruling tomorrow, and the Fed decision this Thursday, the next few days will be pretty dynamic. Also important to keep in mind, we have retail sales data this Friday.

From an index point of view, its clear sp'1400 is now the first line that the bears need to break. So, even if the Germans and/or the Bernanke upset the market, the bulls have a clear 33pts buffer zone of comfort.

sp' weekly, 2yr


Bulls have had a great run from the June low of 1266 to 1433, that's a very significant 167pts in just over 3 months. At the current rate of increase, we'll close 2012 @ sp'1600. Now that is probably the most disturbing trend/outlook I've posted in some months.

From a MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle, we are potentially levelling out on the cycle, but really, it will take at least 2 or 3 weeks to have any confidence that a rollover is taking place. Of course, right now, prices are still very much in an up trend.

One key aspect that I think is paramount to keep in mind - whether bullish or bearish minded, is that a break of 1350, will in theory at least, open the door to a fast move to 1200/1170, as based on various monthly support/MAs. The notion that the Sp' will be at 1350 sometime in the next month or so, that's a pretty bold target, considering the present general weekly trend.

So, all eyes to the German constitutional court tomorrow, lets see if they are obedient to the ECB wishes, and vote Ja.

Goodnight from London