Saturday, 8 September 2012

It will be tough to break rising support

With the primary trend remaining up, the bears are fighting a super tanker of bullish momentum. Its going to be real tough just to break the first rising trend, which by the end of September will be sp'1375

We do have a long autumn ahead though, and the underlying global econ-data continues to show increasing weakness.



So, by the end of this month, bears will only have to be close below 1375 to have broken the trend from the 1074 low of last October, linking with the June 1266 low.

1375 is not exactly that far down, but as we've seen lately, unless there is some real sell side volume, every down cycle - even the multi-day ones, amounts to no more than a few percent, only to quickly melt back upward.

More important than anything this autumn, the bears will need to see market volume significantly increase, otherwise it probably won't even matter how bad the econ-news turns out to be.

First key support (end Sept) 1375

Secondary, 50 day MA, 1384, but by end Sept' will be around 1400.

Critical support - the 200 day MA of 1342, which by end Sept' will be 1350.

So, again I will say this, until we break back below 1350, putting a few consecutive daily closes, and also a monthly close <1350, the primary trend is still UP.

*it looks very much like my target of sp'1445 will be hit by middle of next week. I'm looking for a pullback from there, we should have a reasonable chance of 1400/1380 by end September.

Yet, that might be it for the early Autumn, and it remains very plausible - baring any upset, that we'll just melt upward to sp'1500/50 by year end - and that's still assuming now QE.

More later.