Friday 21 September 2012

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes showed very marginal declines, but it was the transports where we saw what were arguably pretty devastating declines. Were the dow down 2.7%, that would be an equivalent loss of around 375pts !


NYSE Comp, daily



Sp'daily5



Transports


Summary

Lets start where the action was..the tranny. Today was the biggest fall for the tranny in over 3 months. This sort of decline is not to be taken lightly, and yet the dow/sp, seemed completely content to ignore it.

I'm really not sure what to make of this extreme disparity between the 'old leader' and the main indexes. Which is wrong here? Is the tranny just over-reacting to a few earnings concerns, or are the bigger indexes just lagging behind..in a lala land of delusion?

The master index (NYSE comp) slipped a little lower, but like other indexes closed well off the morning lows. The underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle certainly continues to tick lower, and is suggestive of upside momentum weakening, yet we just aren't seeing any decisive significant daily declines.

So far - aside from the transports, the main indexes are largely trading sideways -in what could just as easily be yet another bull flag, which would point to the sp'1490/1500 level by early October.

A little more later