Wednesday, 19 September 2012

Daily Index Cycle update

A dull day for the main market, although the transports continues to show very significant weakness. First target is a daily close <1450, and then 1440/30 within 3-5 trading days.

It would appear very unlikely we can break below the recent cycle low of 1397.




The main market remains flat, although arguably a top is in at sp'1474. The transports remains remarkably weak, and today again put in a very strong decline of 1.1%.

Transports is set to go negative cycle on the MACD either late tomorrow or Thursday. So, look for a stronger move to the downside then. Will the dow/SP' finally play catch up, and snap lower then?

With the QE3 decision done, things do remain a little strange. After all, what now? Are we literally waiting for the clown networks to lead the way with talk of 'when will the fed increase monthly purchases?'. Considering the underlying economy, I'd expect the Fed to ramp purchases to at least $125/150bn by the end of Q1 2013.

Once again, that just makes me wonder about the metals, not least with the dollar broadling declining.

A little more later.