Tuesday, 11 September 2012

Daily Index Cycle update

The biggest closing decline in the sp' for six days, but the transports is warning of further upside in the broader market this Tuesday, and possibly also into Wednesday.

Primary target remains sp'1445.




The broader market was weak into the close, but it really wasn't anything for the bears to justifiably get excited about. Considering the mega ramp on Thursday, today only makes a minor dent to those strong gains.

I think the tranny should be a real warning to the bears tomorrow, it shows no sign of weakness, and in fact is due to have a MACD bullish cross, and go positive on the underlying cycle. A move to around 5200 looks easily within range, thats around 2%, and would equate to sp'1445.

I am patiently looking to re-short this nasty market somewhere in the 1440/45 area. Downside should be to at least 1420, if not 1375 by the end of the month.

Lets be clear though, any of the 'doomers' out there need to see a monthly close <1375, until that is achieved, shorting this market is definately the riskier side of the trade.

A little more later.