Wednesday, 26 September 2012

2pm update - rainbow trends still bearish

The intra-day bounce is probably largely complete, with a move from 1430 to 1439.

The rainbow trends remain unchanged, with the.VIX higher and indexes lower.

Target remains sp'1420, with VIX 18.50/19.00


sp'daily, rainbow

vix'daily, rainbow.


The bounce will have spooked the weaker bears, but thats okay. Volatility remains very low, and even a move to the 18/19 range really doesn't get me overly excited for next week.

I find it very unlikely we can break 1420 this cycle.

As I keep saying, rather than look for a break of the recent low, bears should look for a lower high in the next up cycle - and that may take until mid-October to max out.

*special note, my second 'October red flag' Oil < currently achieved. Along with the transports, thats two major red flags. However, how we close the week/month is what matters.

back at 3pm