Monday 13 August 2012

Volatility back to the March 2012 lows

Even though the main indexes were lower in the morning, the VIX was still lower by around 4%. The close of -7% to 13.70, is just a fraction above the March intra-day low of 13.66.

The current VIX level is truly bizarre.


VIX,60min



VIX, daily



VIX, weekly


Summary

Today's action in the VIX makes little sense. We're now just a few weeks away from what will very likely be a very turbulent September-November trading period.

Arguably, loading up on further VIX calls (Nov/Dec month) seems like an obvious 'sit in the background' trade position to take on at this point.

However, only with a VIX into the 19s..and more importantly, over 21, can the bears start to get a little excited about the months to come. For the moment, this remains an utterly fearless market.

After all, everything is fixed in the economy now..right ?
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More later.