Saturday 11 August 2012

The SP' monthly cycle remains bullish

A very quiet week for the main markets, but still a net gain of around 1%. The SP'500 is now very close to taking out the April peak of 1422.

Some are calling for a double top..others.. 'a minor fifth wave higher'. Regardless, we've seen one mighty jump off the June low of 1266, and there is currently no sign of it stopping.


sp, monthly,


Summary

For the bears, this simple rainbow chart has to be painful to look at. The bounce off the 1266 low was - (myself included), expected to get stuck somewhere in the 1350/75 range. Yet, we've now got a weekly closing over 1400, and there is no sign of a turn lower.


The 2007/8 parallel

I suppose those looking for a second deflationary collapse wave - on the scale of the original financial panic, could argue we are trading similar to Sept/Oct 2007.

If that is the case, we'd need to see an equivalent hit of the lower bollinger band - around sp'1200, by late Oct/November of this year. Its possible I suppose, and I'll certainly keep it in mind.
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So, here we are, another strange week in market land. Very low volume, virtually no news - Europe seems fast asleep, and it now appears that Mr Market is right back to the infamous low volume melt up.

Have a great weekend

....Goodnight from London.