Sp'daily5b - scenarios
Summary
The scenarios on this chart arguably cover most of the near term outcomes. With the Bernanke due to speak within a few days, its no wonder things are dead quiet. Everyone - especially those algo-bots, are merely in a holding mode.
From a MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle perspective, we've already come down quite a way, and this has to be seen as a real problem for the doomer bears. It seems VERY unlikely we can break considerably lower on a 1-2 week basis.
Right now, I prefer scenario C'. I certainly think 1380 will be too hard to break in the current cycle. The only hope for bears is that we'll put in a slightly lower high, and then rollover sharply around mid-September. Of course, for any index declines below 1350, we're going to need to see VIX back above 20
A little more later.