Thursday 2 August 2012

Daily Index Cycle update - rolling over

Today was certainly a bit of a choppy one. The close was not exactly inspiring for the bears, the declines were again only relatively moderate.

Yet, on the daily MACD cycle, we are starting to rollover, as lead by both the transports and the Rus'2000 small cap.


IWM



Sp



Transports


Summary

A very bearish day for the tranny, which even put in a nice close below the hugely important 5000 level. Two more daily closes under 5k..would be a real warning that the long awaited wave'3 lower might finally be underway.

See the MACD cycle on the Sp' closeup chart, it IS rolling over. Bears should arguably seek at least one major down day of sp -20/25pts either tomorrow or Friday. So..the target would be somewhere around 1350..preferably in the 1340s.

A close in the 1330s at any time would break the lower channel, and portend for possible severe falls next week.
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A little more later.