Thursday, 30 August 2012

10am update - pre-Bernanke mark downs

Good morning. It looks like we're seeing some pricing in of disappointment tomorrow for those seeking QE in the near term. VIX is only up 3% though, that's pretty weak considering the opening drop.




I'm not at all getting excited over this open, I sure don't trust it. The move is still minor, and VIX is not suggesting anything that can be sustained.

Best bear case tomorrow, is a move to the trend of 1380. I don't expect that to break, but even if we do, the vastly more important trend of 1350 is going to be concrete resistance.

Just consider the daily MACD cycle,its already pretty low, sure won't be easy to go much lower. All it'll take is one comment from Draghi to whipsaw this nonsense back upward.
Back at 12pm.