Tuesday 17 July 2012

The Ultimate Death Cross - a preliminary warning of trouble in 2013

To close today, I want to highlight something I noticed on Zerohedge earlier today- detailing the looming 'ultimate death cross'. I wasn't even aware that there are chartists out there who consider a 'monthly death cross'. The 'daily cycle' death cross is something that just about everyone is aware of - and that gets a fair bit of publicity at least once or twice a year, so this 'monthly cycle' cross of doom was actually new to me!

The last time we saw the contrary 'ultimate golden cross', was in the mid 1960s I believe. So, its been almost FIFTY years since we've seen the 50 MA below the 200 MA.

I suppose the doomsters could call it one of the key signs that the 'American/Western economy Golden Age' is coming to an end. For the moment, all I know is that the printing maniacs are still out there on the loose, and are ready and waiting to pump asset prices right back up.


Sp, monthly, 6yr


sp, monthly, 20yr


Stockcharts only go back twenty years, but you can clearly see, the 50 MA has always been above the 200MA, but is now a mere 6.57 pts away.


Summary

Even clown channel (CNBC) did a feature on the 'ultimate death cross' today (dare I cite them?)..take a look anyway....




When will the death cross occur ?

Even if we fall to sp'1200/1150 by the end of August/early September, the very slow moving monthly averages might not cross for some months to come. It might take as long as October, and even then..if the Bernanke has initiated QE3 - with a strong market ramp, then the cross might not occur at all this year!

Anyway, its something to keep in mind, each time you see one of the monthly SP' charts on these pages.

Goodnight from London