Sp, monthly, 6yr
Summary
The Tuesday peak of sp'1374 now seems a little distant. In reality, we could still put in new highs, even above the April peak of 1422, although I continue to believe that highly improbable due to the underlying weakness in the global economy.
What is clear for next week, the bears need to pick up some downside momentum, and see good confirmation with the VIX breaking higher..at least to 20..preferably 24/25.
The ultimate doomster target remains the lower channel/wedge line (pink) of sp'1100. Right now that seems so very far away, but if we can take out the recent June low of sp'1266, its 'game on'. The Bernanke can surely not do QE3 this August, not unless Mr Market gets greatly upset between now and the next FOMC meeting (Aug'1st annoucement).
Between now and early August, the bears do have the opportunity to whack this market lower. If they can't do something significant next week (at least testing 1330/20s), then arguably, those traders/analysts touting end year targets as high as sp'1500/1600, could easily instead be right.
Goodnight from London