WTIC, daily
WTIC, weekly
WTIC, monthly
Summary
Since last Thursdays hyper-ramp began for no good reason, Oil has jumped around 15% in just three trading sessions. That's got to be a good sign of 'stability' in the world commodity markets right?
First resistance is around the 50 day MA at $90..although this MA is falling fast, so by late Friday it might be as low as 89. The weekly chart shows resistance at the 10MA of $88, and you could argue we currently have a bear flag.
Now, if you look back to the 2008 collapse wave, the first major attempt to battle back in Sept'08 failed at both the 10 and 50MA (currently $94). Considering the wider market, I can NOT see Oil breaking over $95 at all this summer, baring an 'event'.
The Bernanke can't do QE3 this summer
To think that many still believe Bernanke will initiate QE3 this summer, its bizarre.If QE3 was launched, Oil would soar, and many recognise Oil would then probably make a challenge of the $147 summer 2008 high.
Benny knows this of course, and despite the signs of a weakening US and world economy, he is still not spinning up the printers...yet. He will wait, but then the Fed is ALWAYS reactive, it never pre-empts, and that remains something just about everyone still seems to forget.
Lets be clear, if the markets do break lower later this month, look for Oil to break $76...that will open the door to $60..which of course would be something of a surprise to many traders.
So, enjoy your Burgers and Fries today, freedom lovers*
More later in the evening.
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*just be sure not to carry a copy of the constitution on your person at any time, or you could end up on the DHS 'terrorist watch list'.