Thursday 26 July 2012

3pm update - mysterious closing hour

Well, its time for the closing hour. Do we sell off - as yesterday, or do we ramp to close at the high of the day? This is more difficult to call than yesterday, since the size of the gap up is just so damn huge.

VIX remains weak...but at least its not putting in new lows..yet.


sp'15min, rainbow



vix'60min


Summary

So...where now? Today is clearly nonsense, hardly anyone would be deluded enough to believe otherwise.

The bigger cycles all suggest downside..still, but again, now that we're back in the 1360s..its getting borderline again. A break above the recent high of 1380 would be a severe problem for ALL bearish outlooks, and considering that July only has 3 trading days left...the monthly cycles would arguably start flipping to outright bullish.
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*ohh, and don't forget, we have FB and AMZN earnings at the close

Something for the closing hour... a glimpse back to the 80s...when the market was somewhat less insane that now. A time when dividends and earnings were considered 'important', not the mere talk of some European central banker.