Wednesday, 18 July 2012

2pm update - weakness in the afternoon

With Bernanke out of the way, what is left for the market now this month...and into August?

Doubtless, some will be looking for QE3 at the next FOMC Aug1'st, but I find that impossible to imagine. The first real opportunity for proper QE will be the FOMC of Thur' Sept'13. If thats the case, bears have two months to whack this nasty market lower. That is plenty of time.




Best bear case, marginal index declines, with a slightly higher VIX.

I'm not expecting too much this afternoon. Tomorrow morning offers the first real opportunity for the bears to show some strength. We've a fair bit of econ-data, so at least it won't be dull.