Thursday, 5 July 2012

2pm update - sleepy yet?

With the action as quiet as it is, its kinda hard not to fall asleep.


sp'60min



sp' weekly



The weekly chart gives good perspective for those looking for doom. The weekly 10MA of 1335 will be first support in any pullback, and that is a fair way lower from here. Bears are going to have a real tough time breaking below 1340/30 next week.


Summary

From a MACD cycle perspective, we could already be forming a rounded cycle floor, and trundle higher into tomorrow. There is even the possibility of a Friday close in the 1390s. Will Mr Market rally on 'bad jobs news = Qe3 in August' ?

Those bears shorting this afternoon ahead of the jobs data, its pretty risky, not least with the 60min cycle arguably putting in a rounded floor.

A new short around 1390/1400 (see daily charts) would appear to be the first 'safe zone' for new bear positions.