Wednesday, 6 June 2012

VIX - fear reducing, at least for a while

With the main indexes showing gains of 2-3% today, the VIX lost over 10%, and now looks set to fall for some days to come.


VIX'60min



VIX, daily, bullish outlook



VIX, weekly



Summary

Primary target for the VIX is 20, but if the market can rally into the middle of next week - sp'1350/60, then my best guess is VIX will briefly fall to at least 19/18..maybe even a brief spike into the 17/16s.

From a count perspective, this large move up would be wave'1..and now we're due a brief pullback..before the VIX explodes higher - in the same style as we've a number of times over the last few years.

In the bigger picture, I am looking for VIX 30s/40s by the end of June/early July. There are just so many issues out there right now, and things are very much building to a very volatile conclusion in Europe this summer.

More later..looking at those daily index cycles.