Tuesday, 5 June 2012

Daily Cycle Update - nearing a floor

A very choppy and mixed day for the indexes. After 5 solid weeks of declines, we're getting real close to concluding this 'wave 1' down cycle.

IWM, daily, bearish

Nasdaq Comp, daily

SP' bearish, count'2



Both sp/iwm bearish outlooks have targets down in the 1225 zone. That seems a little low right now, and some fifth waves often fall short of what might be expected.

I certainly think there is still potential for 1225 late this week, but considering the micro 15/60 minute cycles, it just seems out of range. Assuming a small bounce to 1290/1300 by late tomorrow (best bull case)..1250 is a lot to ask for in the remainder of the week.

The Bernanke speaking this Thursday morning will be paramount, and I'm guessing the market will eventually begin a significant wave'2 higher. LTRO'3 or at least some serious hints of Fed 'further QE if necessary' would certainly help kick start a 75/100pt up cycle.

I remain long, holding overnight, looking to exit around 1290 tomorrow morning, and then re-short for the last move lower.

More later.