Volatility update

The VIX did break through the 21 level today..but only briefly. The close of 20.08 was still positive, but considering the weakness in the main indexes, bears should probably be a little disappointed. However, with the break of 21, the door is now open to around 24.


VIX, daily - rainbow

VIX, daily

VIX, weekly

Summary

The VIX cycles are ALL bullish, although the strength of the trend is pretty weak. A VIX of 20% (VIX is actually quoted as a percentage) is still kinda low considering the equity market concerns in the near term, and also those for the long term health of the global economy.

It does not appear that the VIX can explode into the high 20s or 30s in this cycle. Todays black spinning top candle is potencially warning of a top, but VIX candles are not as reliable as index candles I've come to believe.

So, right now....market volatility IS increasing..but at a pace that is not exactly warning of any 'major market terror' any time soon. If my H/S formation theory is correct - and the indexes stay in a range of 1340-1390 into opex, then VIX can drop a little...and then the next VIX up cycle can perhaps begin as early as late next week.