Sp'60min
Summary
So, right now we are set to open around sp'1322. Despite how exciting that might be for the bears, even 1322 is 22 pts away from breaking the key 1300 level. I guess we'll floor around 1315 by 11am or so.
Only with a move under at least 1315 can the bears start to wonder if we are seeing a trend change.
Even more so, only with a break below sp'1300..(32 points away right now!) can the bears seriously consider that the current rally is over.
For a clue as to whether we have a chance at breaking below 1300...look to the VIX. Bears will need to see a VIX +7/10% day. Anything less...it just won't be enough.
*It sure does look like a bear flag on that hourly chart..to confirm it..we need a break to a new low sp<1291...41pts lower. We have GDP and Jobs data Thur/Friday, so there IS the possibility of a major down move.
The bears have an opportunity this morning... will they be able to hold onto such declines...and build on them?
More across the day.