I was looking at the 60min cycle. For the sp', a close for the bulls above the 10MA is the obvious target - which will be around sp'1315 at the close of today. So, that would be around sp'10/12 points higher. That's certainly feasible today.
Sp'60min
Summary
That is one hell of a strong and long down channel for the hourly cycle. We've not seen anything like this since last July/August collapse wave'2011.
I think it can be said that only a break and close above the upper channel - currently 1340 would confirm a trend change. Although, by the close of next Tuesday this level will be down to 1320.
There are many issues about 'what happens when we do start going up again', but I've cover that over the weekend. I've scrubbed all my 60min charts, so no more numbers or giant arrows. For the moment, lets keep it simple until we exit this down channel. Ohh, and lets not forget, its opex, so expect some choppy action across the day.
*re: Facebook. It goes live on the exchange at 11am I believe.
I'm certainly not..and never will meddle in such hysteria lead IPOs. If there is one thing to look for in today's trading, look for a GIANT black candle on both the hourly and daily chart. Maybe it'll look something like this....
BKS, daily
Look at the action on Monday April'30'th. Almost a 100% gain (pre-market) - on news of a deal with MSFT. Well, those gains sure never held, and its been falling like a lead clad brick since.
Can Facebook close red today? I certainly believe so, which would of course be pretty funny to see. Yep, the most entertaining thing of the year so far...FB opens up 50/70%...and yet closes red...5/10%. That would be my 'best guess' for today. Lets be clear, it'll be a 100 PE stock, that's INSANE. Even PE'30 would be a stretch, and for a internet stock, I just can't stand the fundamentals of it.
There is no loyalty in net-land, there is no reason why FB won't go the way of MySpace. Remember this day, traders! The day when the entire western markets were once again caught up in 24/7 blanket coverage of an internet IPO, whose annual earnings were 1 billion...and yet they valued it at 100 billion. Yeah, I think many know where this nonsense is eventually headed.
Good wishes for Facebook-Friday ;)