Thursday, 10 May 2012

Daily Cycle Update

As I type (6.14pm EST), futures are sp-10... that does make things rather interesting right now. However, in the meantime, lets look at the state of those daily cycles.

SP' daily, bearish

IWM, daily, bearish

Transports, daily

VIX, daily, rainbow (Elder impulse)


I am holding to the original outlook. A large H/S formation, where sp'1422 marked the top of this post-October 2011 rally. I believe are now in wave'3 - the most destructive wave, and currently in minor 'bounce/recovery' wave2'. This wave should last no longer than 3-5 days.

Both the monthly and weekly cycles support the notion of a considerable drop in the market in the coming weeks and across the early summer. Many of the world indexes also support the notion of a near term 10/15% (reasonable case) drop in the US markets.

*Note that if futures are showing -15 at any point, that would break the recent sp'1343 low. Futures -19 would break the hugely important 1340 level.

If we do somehow trade in the 1330s tomorrow morning, that will likely surprise many traders...myself included!

More later