Saturday, 12 May 2012

CRB - Commodities about to break support

Commodities are leading equities lower, and remain a strong and clear warning that the down trend in the broader markets will continue into the early summer.

CRB, weekly, 5yr


The 290 level on the CRB index is surely going to fail sometime next week, and that will likely lead to 250 - a good 15% lower. This would be highly suggestive of sp'1270 within the next few weeks.

In the bigger picture, it will be important to see if the 250 level can hold across this year. A break of 250 would likely mean we're going to 200 - a full re-test of the 2008/9 collapse wave lows. Of course, that does not imply equities will be at sp'666, but it will be an important index to regularly keep in mind.

Goodnight from London