Tuesday 22 May 2012

10am update - the Facebook entertainment continues

Whilst the main market takes a little more time to consolidate yesterdays gains, FB remains highly amusing to watch.


FB, daily



Yeah, fair value remains $4, and that is my 'generous' valuation..In the market that we have, I'd guess 12/10 within 9 months or so. Although, at the current rate of decline, we'll hit that by end June, ;)


Back in the main market...

Dow'60min



VIX'60min


Summary

*As I type, Dow is trying to break out of the down channel....a very good sign for the bulls.
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Today could easily close flat, but that's okay. In previous cycles, often we'll see an initial gain on day'1, then a holding day, before day'3 provides very significant follow through. Arguably, the bulls should want to see SP' above 1330/35 by early Thursday. Remember if we close above 1352 by the Friday close, that would be super-bullish - and initially confirm the 'wave '5 idea' I've posted about.

It looks like we'll get a VIX close <22 late today or Wednesday. That bodes well for the bigger picture of a move to at least 1340, more likely 1370/80.

*TVIX holders suffering again, but AAPL seeing good follow through.